The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) stated in the 5th Assessment Report that “warming of the global climate is unequivocal”. We are used to coping with day-to-day changes in our weather, but not to our overall climate. One of the greatest challenges facing nature and biodiversity in the 21st Century will be it’s ability to respond to changes in global climate.
Will key sites such as Nor Marsh, Medway Estuary be lost to rising seas?
Climate change is progressing faster than many people believe. These changes will bring profound changes to wildlife. There will be some benefits from climate change, including the welcome arrival of species from continental Europe such as little egrets, purple herons, hoopoes and spoonbills. Most of the impacts however are expected to be adverse, and exacerbated by the fast rate and large scale of climate change, which allows little time for natural adaptation; by the poor conservation status of many species and habitats; and by our highly modified landscapes.
A summary of projected climate change impacts for the Greater Thames Marshes NIA (taken from the UK Climate Projections 2009 – see link below) is available for download.
Climate Change Adaptation Assessment Framework
In January 2014 NIA partners (including representatives from Essex County Council, Kent County Council, Essex Wildlife Trust, Thames Estuary Partnership, Bumblebee Conservation Trust, Zoological Society London, Natural England and Environment Agency) took place in a workshop developed by RSPB’s Futurescape Programme to learn about climate impacts in the Greater Thames; consider appropriate adaptation actions; work through a step-by-step process to gather and collect information; and, develop our thinking in relation to future projects across the Greater Thames.
A summary report and presentation outlining the key findings and agreed action points are now available for download.
A detailed adaptation action plan has been developed as a working document and is available on request.
Further Reading
The following information resources were referenced in the development of the climate adaptation action plan:
- The Adaptation Sub-Committee’s report ‘Managing the land in a changing climate’ – http://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/ASC-2013-Book-singles_2.pdf – a useful report published by the body responsible for overseeing Government delivery on climate change adaptation
- Climate Change Adaptation Manual – http://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/5629923804839936 – a resource to help conservation managers and advisors to make informed decisions about adaptation
- LWEC’s Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Report Card – http://www.lwec.org.uk/resources/report-cards/biodiversity – this summarises how terrestrial biodiversity is doing in relation to climate change
- Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership Report Card – http://www.mccip.org.uk/media/18758/mccip-arc2013.pdf – summarising how climate change is impacting the marine environment
- Assessing the potential consequences of climate change for England’s landscapes: North Kent (NERR052) – NERR052 – Assessing the potential consequences of climate change for England’s landscapes: North Kent
- The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) – https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment-government-report – published by Defra in 2012 this document assesses risks of climate change by sector – cross-sectoral analysis is something earmarked for the next iteration of this document (they are due every 5yrs)
- UK National Adaptation Programme – https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/209866/pb13942-nap-20130701.pdf – published in 2013, this outlines the actions “government, businesses and society” are doing to become more climate ready in response to the CCRA (see above)
- UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) – http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/ – probabilistic projects for how the UK’s climate will change, the Briefing Report gives an overview of summary results and data available.
Climate change is the fluctuations of the Earth’s climate as a whole or its individual regions over time, expressed in statistically significant deviations of weather parameters from multiyear values over a period of time from decades to millions of years.
Changes in both the average values of weather parameters and changes in the frequency of extreme weather events are taken into account. The study of climate change is the science of paleoclimatology. Climate change is caused by dynamic processes on Earth, external influences, such as fluctuations in the intensity of solar radiation. According to one version, it is predominantly influenced by human activity. Recently, the term “climate change” is used as a rule (especially in the context of environmental policy) to refer to changes in the current climate.
Climate change factors
Climate change is caused by changes in the Earth’s atmosphere, processes occurring in other parts of the Earth, such as oceans and glaciers, as well as effects associated with human activities. External processes that form the climate are:
- changes in solar radiation and the Earth’s orbit;
- change in size;
- relief and relative position of continents and oceans;
- changing the luminosity of the sun changes in the parameters of the orbit and the axis of the Earth;
- a change in the transparency of the atmosphere and its composition as a result of changes in the Earth’s volcanic activity;
- changing the concentration of greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) in the atmosphere;
- change in the reflectivity of the Earth’s surface (albedo);
- change in the amount of heat present in the depths of the ocean;
- change in the natural underlayer of the Earth between the core and the crust, due to the pumping of oil and gas.
Climate change on Earth
Weather is the daily state of the atmosphere. Weather is a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system. Climate is the average weather condition and is predictable. Climate includes indicators such as average temperature, rainfall, sunny days and other variables that can be measured in a particular location. However, on Earth, there are also processes that can affect the climate.
Glacierization
Glaciers are recognized as one of the most sensitive indicators of climate change. They significantly increase in size during climate cooling and decrease during climate warming. Glaciers grow and melt due to natural changes and under the influence of external influences. In the past century, glaciers were not able to regenerate enough ice during the winters to regain ice loss during the summer months.
The most significant climatic processes in the last few million years are a change of glacial (glacial eras) and interglacial eras of the current glacial period, due to changes in the orbit and axis of the Earth. Changes in the state of continental ice and fluctuations in sea level within 130 meters are key consequences of climate change in most regions.
World ocean variability
On a scale of decades, climate change may be the result of the interaction of the atmosphere and the world’s ocean. Many climate fluctuations, including the most famous southern El Niño oscillation, as well as the North Atlantic and Arctic oscillations, are happened due in part to the ability of the world’s oceans to accumulate heat energy and transfer this energy to different parts of the ocean. On a longer scale, thermohaline circulation occurs in the oceans, which plays a key role in the redistribution of heat and can significantly affect the climate.
Climate memory
In a more general aspect, the variability of the climate system is a form of hysteresis, that is, it means that the present climate state is not only a consequence of the influence of certain factors but also the entire history of its state. For example, in ten years the droughts of the lake partially dry up, the plants die, and the area of deserts increases. These conditions, in turn, cause less heavy rains in subsequent years following the drought. Climate change is a self-regulating process, as the environment reacts in a certain way to external influences, and, by changing itself, is able to affect the climate.
